WHO predicts drop in tobacco use by mid-21st century

Experts from the World Health Organisation (WHO) and leading world doctors have concluded that existing measures aimed at reducing the number of smokers around the world will lead to a drop in smoking among men by 26 percent and among women by a third by the middle of the 21st century, TASS reports

The results of the scientists’ research have been published in the Lancet Global Health scientific journal.

“In line with current trends, by the middle of the century, the proportion of male smokers will drop globally from the current 28.5 to 21.1 percent, and that of female smokers will fell from 5.96 to 4.8 percent. As a result, the total number of smokers will decrease significantly: the number of men smoking will total 1.04 billion, and the number of female smokers will stand at 201 million. The number of smokers will decrease significantly in tropical Latin America, while the maximum increase will occur in sub-Saharan Africa, the researchers say.

This conclusion was reached by a team of WHO experts and leading world doctors led by Professor Stein Vollset of Washington State University when analysing data collected as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. It has been run by WHO, the American IHME Institute and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation since 1990. The project involves specialists from almost all UN states, their medical services and leading scientific centres.

This set of information includes, among other things, information about how many residents of 204 UN countries and other regions of the world smoke. Scientists used this data to assess how global anti-smoking measures have affected the proportion and total number of smokers worldwide over the past 30 years, as well as to prepare a forecast for 2050.

According to calculations, the proportion of smokers among men and women decreased rapidly between 1990 and 2022: in the first case, this figure fell from 41 percent to 28.5 percent, and in the second case, the figure dropped from 10 percent to 5.96 percent. While maintaining current anti-smoking measures, this trend towards quitting smoking will continue, and the proportion of smokers will decrease by another 25-30 percent, which will increase the average life expectancy of both men and women by several months at the global level. The largest increase in this case is expected in the countries of East Asia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Even more significant results, as noted by Prof. Vollset and his colleagues, can be achieved if an ambitious anti-smoking programme is implemented, within which the proportion of smokers in all countries of the world will be reduced to 5 percent by the middle of the century. This will raise the average life expectancy of men by a year, and women by 0.2 years, and in the most smoking Asian countries this increase will reach 1.2-1.8 years. All this speaks in favour of further development of measures aimed at combating smoking, the scientists concluded.