The South Pole of attraction

Africa is emerging as a driver of the global economy

Last year, 1.46 billion people, or almost 18 percent of the world’s population, lived on the African continent. It is projected that it will be inhabited by over 2 billion people by 2050. In addition,
Africa can boast the ongoing rapid production growth. These are serious factors of global politics.

Searching for points of growth 

The current confrontation in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia–Pacific region (Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea, and Taiwan) is an attempt to compensate for the existing crisis in the global economy by increased military spending and by directing budget resources to enterprises of the military and industrial complex of the West. 
Nevertheless, such a war economy allows supporting GDP growth only for a while. In fact, the military and industrial complex does not create any material benefits for society in terms of housing, cars, appliances, computers or equipment. We saw the effect of such ‘militarisation’ on the example of the late USSR, where excessive focus on defence within the Cold War eventually led to the devastating shortage of consumer goods.
Therefore, armed conflicts are a temporary measure to combat the overproduction crisis in the global economy. 
And what’s next? 
Next, we need to find points of growth in places which, on the one hand, have cheap labour, and on the other hand,
can ensure large consumer potential to maintain the process of constant purchase and sale of new goods and services. 
After the Second World War, Japan, South Korea and Germany became such points. Since the 1970s of the 20th century, China should certainly be considered the main centre for capital attraction. Now, Africa is becoming such
a centre.

The planet’s storeroom

As many as five African countries entered the top 10 world’s fastest growing economies last year, according to TradingEconomics.com — Nigeria, Rwanda, Mauritius, Angola, Namibia. For example, Nigeria’s economy grew at a rate of 9.17 percent last year. The average GDP growth rate of African countries in 2024 is expected to be 4 percent. 
One of the key areas of African economies is traditionally the extraction of minerals — hydrocarbons, metals, including rare earths. Up to 40 percent of the world’s gold reserves, as well as up to 90 percent of chromium and platinum are concentrated on this continent. It has the largest deposits of cobalt, diamonds and uranium. The Republic of South Africa, Madagascar, Malawi, Kenya, Namibia, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia and Burundi have reserves of neodymium, praseodymium and dysprosium. Guinea, in turn, contains 35 percent of the world’s bauxite reserves. 
Africa accounts for 65 percent of the world’s arable land and about 10 percent of renewable internal freshwater resources. This determines the huge potential for agricultural development. 
That is why the President of Belarus is so actively focused on developing relations with African countries — they are potential buyers of Belarusian engineering products, fertilisers, equipment and technologies. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, our country has established diplomatic relations with 51 out of 54 countries of the African continent. 
Economic diplomacy in Africa is of particular importance for our country considering its export-oriented economy. With the assistance of our Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a number of Belarusian exporting enterprises, primarily MAZ (a widely known brand of Minsk Automobile Plant) and MTZ (Minsk Tractor Works) have arranged the activities of their representative offices to promote goods and services to local markets in Africa. 
It is worth noting that Belarus is going to Africa not just to supply its products and profit from exports. Our President is welcomed at a high level due to his deep conceptual understanding of the needs of African people.
It is necessary to provide them with food, education, teach them how to earn well and show the justice they lacked during the age of colonialism and debt slavery enforced by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. 

Work within unions

As part of our work with Africa, we do not just focus on building relations with one or several states. There are a significant number of associations of countries there. One of the key unions is the African Economic Community, within which free trade zones, customs unions between countries and a single market are created. The Bank of Central African States also operates within this union. It serves as a central bank for six states of the region.
Regional problems are solved through local unions, such as the Sana’a Cooperation Grouping, the Arab Maghreb Union, the Mano River Union, the Common Monetary Area and others. 
Along with that, the high profitability and attractiveness of this continent holds significant risks, which are taken into account by corporations when building work in this region. The main economic risks include a price rise in food products and energy sources, significant unemployment and high loan rates, the lack of adequate road infrastructure, increased costs for servicing internal and external debts, strong population stratification in terms of income and an uneven educational level of the workforce.
The raw material export model of African economies makes them extremely dependent on fluctuations in world prices and global crises. In addition, it should be pointed out that despite having gained independence, African countries have for a long period remained de facto at the mercy of Western corporations. Africa was forced to sell them its mineral and labour resources at an extremely low cost.  
African economies are characterised by a high level of structural budget deficit and an increase in public debt. The dependence on international financial institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank hinders the development of new sectors of economy and the implementation of structural reforms. Moreover, climate disasters and changes in the political course of countries act as negative factors, as well. 
Despite all these risks, Africa attracts key players in global politics and economy.

The core of the new world

Thus, in early February 2024, the Italian government held the 1st Italy–Africa Summit. The international meeting in Rome was attended by delegations representing major African organisations and 44 countries of the continent.
The Italian plan for the development of co-operation with Africa — the Mattei Plan — presented at the summit, assumes the development of relations in the main areas of economy and in the field of sustainable development. 
Italians intend to gain a foothold in Africa in the agricultural sector, too. The Mattei Plan provides for collaboration in five pillars — water, education and training, agriculture, healthcare and energy.
However, illegal migration and the flow of refugees serve as a deterrent to good relations between Italy (that is —
the EU) and Africa. Italy bears the brunt as refugees from Africa head to Europe. 
The rapid withdrawal of African countries from pro-Western organisations also has a negative impact on the successful outcome of European initiatives in Africa. Thus, on February 3rd, 2023, it became known that three ECOWAS member countries, against which the other community members plus France imposed sanctions — Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso — announced their withdrawal from the association. The countries are determined to abandon the French patronage and achieve independent sustainable development. 

For us, Belarusians, the very fact that African countries are close to us in terms of ideology is important — we jointly advocate for an equal world without patronage, colonies, hegemony and exploitation. Africa can become the ideological core of the struggle for a new multipolar world. 
Summing up the above, Africa is a fast-growing region, a promising driver of the global economy. Yet, only those countries that carry the ideas of justice, honesty and equality can win the co-operation with it. Belarus is one of them.

By Aleksey Avdonin, analyst at Belarusian Institute for Strategic Research