EDB forecasts annual inflation in Belarus below 4-5%
The low growth rate of consumer prices in Belarus will continue in the coming months, contributing to the formation of annual inflation at a level below 4-5 percent, according to Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) analysts
As previously reported, the National Bank of Belarus – in connection with the predicted low inflation rates – decided to reduce the refinancing rate from 10 to 9.75 percent per annum from May 31st. This is the fifth rate cut since the beginning of 2023. In February, annual inflation stood at 11.7 percent, in March it fell to 6 percent, and in April it was down to 4.7 percent.
EDB analysts are sure that the main factor here is the slowdown in annual price growth. However, the recovery of consumer demand and the continued high growth rates of the Belarusian Rouble money supply, according to the bank’s experts, indicate that the potential for reducing the key rate is close to exhaustion.
The EDB reminded that in Q1 2023, the growth of real money incomes of the population recovered in Belarus. According to the results of January-March, they grew by 0.3 percent year-on-year.
