Belarus’ First Deputy Economy Minister: foreign trade is balanced in general
In terms of exports in monetary terms, Belarus has achieved a record result over the past eleven years – as noted by First Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Kartun, adding that $40bn of goods and services was exported last year against $19.5bn in January-May of this year alone
Undoubtedly, in 2024, we will exceed the results of the previous year. However, in terms of the dynamics of foreign trade, we are somewhat behind the forecast indicators and the balance still remains negative. There are several key factors that have a negative impact.
“Firstly, there is a serious increase in the cost of Russian oil. Since this year, the ‘tax manoeuvre’ has been completed in Russia and we currently import oil at world prices. Moreover, the spread between the cost of the Brent and Urals reference grades has decreased to a minimum. The second significant factor is the price of potash fertilisers which decreased significantly in 2023-2024 compared to 2022. Now the market is frozen, with key global suppliers currently negotiating with the states that are the main consumers of these products. This difficult process takes place almost every year, and it must be treated calmly – this is how the potash market works. Quotations for Belarus’ some other significant export positions have not fully recovered either. However, we expect that the market conditions will be more favourable for us in the second half of the year. In any case, we must increase exports in physical volumes by the end of this year to achieve the forecast indicators. And with a more favourable price climate, the results will be even higher,” Andrei Kartun noted.
The official assured that, in general, the foreign trade is balanced. There is no sharp growth across the main segments. If we talk about consumer imports, they are also at a stable level. Moreover, Belarus has a positive balance in this segment. Exports of consumer goods are growing more dynamically than imports. Growth is observed in the vast majority of positions. Those enterprises that did not work very effectively last year are also restoring their positions now.
