We are ready for all risks and challenges

State Secretary of the Security Council — on modern threats and preparedness to counter them

Why does the activity of the USA and the NATO bloc pose a threat to our country? What moves by the West are most worrisome? How will the Belarusian National Security Concept change? State Secretary of the Security Council Aleksandr Volfovich answers these and other questions.

— Today we are witnessing how, as a result of the confrontation between the world’s power centres, the international situation is aggravating, new risks and challenges for the security of countries are emerging. How would you comment on what is happening?
— Indeed, the military-strategic situation in the world is characterised by an avalanche-like growth of negative and extremely dangerous processes. In fact, there is not a single sphere of international and regional security left in which today there is no confrontational tension.
Photo by Yegor Yermalitsky

Of particular concern is the stagnation of the arms control system. The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty have sunk into oblivion.

The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe and the Treaty on Open Skies are in the stage of degradation. The Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (START III), in fact, remains the only existing agreement in this area.
An analysis of the latest strategic documents adopted by NATO, the United States, and the member countries of the alliance confirms that these processes are purposeful, coordinated, and comprehensive. In addition, the results of Russia’s recent consultations with the United States and within NATO on security guarantees testify to the alliance’s unwillingness to abandon its plans to further expand the bloc and create new centres of instability.
The absence of an effective system of checks and balances has led to the fact that the powers fell absolutely comfortable and do not disdain to break the traditional red lines. This entails the resumption of the arms race, the erosion of the role of international institutions and organisations, the growing crisis of confidence on a global and regional scale, and a threat to the sovereignty of small states.
As never before, the problem of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is becoming acute. The negative trend of an increase in the number of countries possessing nuclear weapons, the proliferation and use of chemical weapons continues.

Along with this, the threat of international terrorism remains. With the development of the information sphere, cybersecurity acquires exceptional importance at the level of ensuring national security.

In general, there is a transformation of already known and the emergence of new risks, challenges, and threats.
— The countries neighbouring Belarus are also restless: the military presence of NATO is increasing, the number of drills is growing. There continue to be provocations at the border. However, some residents consider these dangers far-fetched. Could you convince such sceptics?
— Each person has the right to independently draw conclusions from the current situation. Personally, I rely on specific facts. So, last year alone, more than 50 exercises were held near our western borders, including with the involvement of military formations of the NATO Joint Armed Forces in Europe.
In January, NATO announced a strengthening of the grouping in Eastern Europe, sending additional warships and fighters to the areas where the alliance’s units are deployed. The issue of deploying additional multinational battle groups in Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey is being considered. The United States has begun to put on high alert military formations numbering about 8,500 servicemen, who, if necessary, will be promptly deployed to Europe. The UK plans to increase its contingent within the NATO multinational battlegroup in Estonia from 900 to 1,800 troops.

The intensity of reconnaissance aviation in the airspace of neighbouring states causes concern.

Flights of American strategic bombers near the borders of the Union State have intensified. The United States deployed four more B-52H strategic bombers to Europe. The collective West, literally with a fine-tooth comb, analysed the joint exercises Allied Resolve 2022 held on the Belarus territory, preferring not to talk too much about the much larger exercise of the United NATO Armed Forces — Saber Strike 2022, which takes place from January to April in the Baltic countries, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Germany. About 15,000 military personnel, including up to 8,000 Americans, take part in these manoeuvres, and more than 1,000 pieces of equipment are involved. The issues being exercised are also alarming — the creation of groupings of troops and their use on the eastern flank of the alliance.
Take a look at this, today defence spending in Poland and the Baltic countries are already well above the NATO-recommended minimum of 2 percent of GDP. The main funds are directed to the acquisition of modern weapons, mainly offensive weapons, as well as to operational and combat training activities.
— In your opinion, how seriously is Belarus involved in the ‘hybrid war’, and is it easy to win this confrontation?
— Unfortunately, so-called hybrid wars are becoming commonplace in the world. Political pressure, economic sanctions, a demonstration of military force, an information ‘avalanche’ — all these things form a ‘hybrid’ impact. It was with this that our country had to face today. The sovereign and independent policy pursued by the Head of State and supported by the Belarusian people does not suit the collective West. The methods of massive information-psychological influence have become more and more sophisticated. Social networks, instant messengers, video hosting sites that spread lies, fakes, rumours, and conjectures act as tools of information aggression. They seek to manipulate public opinion in any way. Such actions are carried out, as a rule, from abroad. The goal is clear — to ‘rock’ the situation in the country.
Sure, we see other challenges and threats as well. We act up to the development of the situation. Furthermore, we are taking additional measures to strengthen the national security system. We are improving legislation, making adjustments to the practical activities of the security cabinet, aimed at increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of the use of available forces and means.
In fact, there is not a single sphere of international
and regional security left in which today
there is no confrontational tension


Interviewed by Sergei Chernovets