Expert comments on Belarus’ co-operation with Russia, China

Belarus has become the EAEU leader in terms of industrial production growth in H1 2023. Chinese Defence Minister Li Shangfu has arrived to the republic on an official visit. These two pieces of news demonstrate in which direction Belarus’ international relations are developing at present. In his talk with Alfa Radio, political expert Yuri Shevtsov explained why it is so important for China and the Russian Federation to co-operate with Belarus.

In H1 2023, industrial production in Belarus increased by 6 percent, and Mr. Shevtsov emphasised that such growth became possible primarily due to the existing public administration system in the country.

“Belarus is a strong presidential republic, and management systems of the kind are best prepared to work in extreme conditions. Crises, catastrophes, the threat of war require a painful restructuring from the liberal path to a tougher one. It turned out to be easier for Belarusians in this sense,” the expert noted. “Accordingly, when Belarus faced sanctions problems after 2020, it managed to solve them easier than many other countries – thanks to co-operation with Russia. That policy worked. In 2020, the presidential vertical in Belarus strengthened, and the country deepened its interaction with the Russian Federation. When the current phase of the war in Ukraine began, it allowed us to quickly receive Russian support and reorient the sanctioned sectors of the economy to the Russian market. In addition, with such a management system, it turned out to be easier for Belarus to fit into the import substitution schemes that are well developed in Russia and were previously considered something fantastic.”

Mr. Shevtsov believes that literally everything that Belarus produces will be in demand in Russia due to sanctions. “Microchips, agricultural machinery, food, quite a few dual-use components: our military‑industrial complex is one of the strongest in Eastern Europe. Therefore, the possibility of co-operation with Russia within the framework of import substitution programmes is a good incentive for Belarus,” he said.

The interest of the People's Republic of China in Belarus is another point. “It is really unique. After all, Belarus is virtually a statistical error in the proportion of China’s population. Moreover, the countries are located far from each other. The reason for such close co-operation is rooted primarily in the proximity of Belarus and Russia. Due to our special relations, we have some kind of influence within Russia, which is taken into account in China as well. After all, Russia is a nuclear superpower, and our influence on such a country is a huge diplomatic asset in the world... The location of Belarus in Eastern Europe is another reason,” Mr. Shevtsov noted.

The expert added, “The scale of a possible conflict between NATO and Russia depends on us. If Belarus ‘explodes’ in any form, then it will no longer be a local war in Ukraine, but a big war – which is important for China in itself. In a narrow sense, the fate of the new Great Silk Road also depends on Belarus. Ukraine has cut it tightly, the Baltic States are close to that, and Belarus has been the most important corridor for several years already. Of course, this new Silk Road is not extremely grandiose for China: it is just a very important programme, since Chinese have more important ways to transport their goods to Europe. Nevertheless, it matters, and they are supervising control over it.”