White gold

Belarus expects to increase milk production by almost 2 million tonnes over the five-year period, global trends so far show a slowdown in growth

Analysts agree: global milk production will decline in 2022 for the first time in many years. Albeit not significantly, but still. There are several reasons. The main ones are an increase in production costs and a lack of feed, as well as a reduction in the number of livestock. The Belarusian policy in the agro-industrial complex is quite logical amid this trend: not to export grain, but to process it domestically for the needs of animal husbandry, which means getting more meat and milk with good profitability and supplying foreign markets not with raw materials, but with products with high added value. By the way, for several years now Belarus has been occupying leading positions in the world rankings for  the export of dairy products: the country accounts for 6 percent of world trade in this segment.

Photo by Aleksandr Kulevsky

Positive dynamics

On average, for 2016-2020, the volume of milk production in Belarus grew by 2.1 percent annually. 
Positive dynamics continued last year: 7587.9 thousand tonnes of milk were produced in the country (101.1 percent by 2020). The profitability of sales in 2021 is provided at the level of 21.2 percent.
Farmers have ambitious plans for the near future. As Agriculture and Food Minister Igor Brylo said earlier, milk production is planned to increase by almost 2 million tonnes over the five-year period. According to him, dairy cattle breeding in the country is one of the most efficient branches of agricultural production, “Milk production in the public sector has increased by 11 percent over the past five years, and the growth in production volumes is provided annually... In 2021, 62.2 percent of milk of the extra fine grade was sold, which is 2.7 percentage points higher than in 2020 and by 7.9 percentage points above 2017. The high quality of raw materials makes it possible to expand the possibilities of the processing industry for the production of dairy products that are competitive in the domestic and foreign markets.”

Advanced growth

At the same time, global milk production is projected to grow at a slower pace than in previous years due to declining dairy herds and declining profit margins in several major producing regions, and trade volumes could fall from the highs of 2021. 
According to the forecast of the FAO Expert Group for the 2021-2030 period, global milk production will grow by 1.7 percent per year over the next decade (to 1.02 billion tonnes by 2030), outpacing the production of most leading crops.
Cow’s milk occupies the largest share of total world milk production at 81 percent, followed by buffalo milk production at 15 percent. Goat, sheep and camel milk accounts for 4 percent. The countries of Asia, Europe and North America together produce 80 percent of the world’s milk and dairy products.
According to the Bik Ratings report, the global milk production amounted to 906 million tonnes or $711 billion in 2020.
On average, for 2016-2020, the volume of dairy production increased by 2.5 percent 
annually.
International trade in dairy products increased to 79 million tonnes in terms of milk in 2020. Compound average annual growth rate of exports for 2016-2020 amounted to 2.6 percent. The largest share in the structure of world exports is occupied by the countries of Europe and Oceania — 36.4 percent and 28.7 percent, respectively. World imports of milk and dairy products amounted to 77.6 million tonnes in 2020, more than 60 percent come from Asian countries. 











By Polina Konoga