Watts as leverage

Let’s explore what constitutes the big politics chain

If we take a closer look, we will see that many current conflicts are connected to the issue of energy resources. It is precisely due to these resources that entire nations are being destroyed and regions are being shaken. What can be done to counter this?

Ends and means  

Russian President Vladimir Putin approved the signing of an agreement to establish a unified energy market for the Union State, drafted last year. The launch of the unified energy market, as previously reported, may occur on January 1st, 2025. This is a crucial step that allows addressing many issues between economic entities of both countries, and opens avenues for further progress along the integration path.  
The energy sector today is not merely a part of the economy; it embodies substantial political significance. The West instantly declares any country attempting to assert independence in this area as an adversary. Washington exerts pressure on Belarus partly for this reason.  
Suffice it to recall how a few years ago, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo rushed to our country when a hypothetical contract for the supply of US oil to Belarus emerged. No one had expected such eagerness from the hegemon: all of a sudden, our country seemed to meet all the standards set by the White House.

It was extremely important for the United States to hack an energy window through to Europe and make it dependent on American raw materials. To this end, the USA promptly began to create a special energy hub in Poland for its supplies to replace the German ones, based on eastern raw materials. 

Blocking the Nord Streams through sabotage, and the pipelines traversing Ukraine by provoking a direct conflict with Russia fits perfectly into the US logic. As a result, Germany has ceased to be the main player in the energy game, while Poland is now aiming to become a major euro hub for resources supplied from the USA. The plans to construct a Polish nuclear power plant using American technology no longer seem spontaneous in this context. This is exactly the case where the end justifies the means.

Moved away from uranium

The focus in the Ukrainian conflict is increasingly shifting towards fuel and energy complexes, with both sides involved. Washington and Brussels, under the guise of assisting Ukraine, are supplying it with long-range weapons not to let it achieve military superiority, but to inflict damage on energy facilities in Russia. Indeed, strikes are being targeted at power stations and oil refineries.
Statements regarding the potential supply of F-16 fighter jets to Kiev should be viewed in the same context. The number of Ukrainian pilots who have undergone retraining, and the quantity of aircraft transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine are clearly insufficient to ensure a decisive advantage in the ongoing war; yet it could be enough to inflict serious damage on Russian energy infrastructure. About 60 American-made fighter jets are planned to be supplied to Ukraine, with 30 pilots starting out, while Russia has 30 oil refineries, 11 nuclear power plants, and 15 hydroelectric power stations. This totals to 60 against 60, or a 1 to 1 ratio. There is a feeling that the pilots and fighter jets with missiles are programmed for a single use and aimed at specific targets, with attacks focused on the lifeblood of the economy — energy sector facilities.
Was the situation with the French uranium failure in Niger truly spontaneous? The government of that country has revoked French fuel producer Orano’s permit to operate at one of the world’s largest uranium mines. 
There is hardly any need to speculate whose interests the European nuclear burner will serve, especially considering the United States’ plan to rapidly develop its own uranium enrichment capabilities and introduce a ban on uranium imports from Russia. It might be a gamble, but a significant one.

Price ceiling delusion

It is worth recalling the Belarusian nuclear epic. How much ado there was on the part of the West about our nuclear power plant! The Belarusian NPP posed no threat to Lithuania whatsoever, regardless of the pseudo-activists’ moans and groans. If you trace the logic behind the liquidation of the Ignalina NPP and the fuss about disconnecting European consumers from the single BRELL [Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania] energy ring, it becomes clear that the Belarusian NPP did not fit into the Brussels and US concept of the energy needle, which the Baltic countries are hooked on.  
It is obvious that electricity is becoming a luxury for Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Whatever their governments may be planning with the use of wind and sun, their citizens have to save on electricity, which is especially expensive for pensioners. Energy availability in the Baltic States is one of the lowest in Europe, which makes them outsiders in the Euroregion. 
The most powerful European enterprises are swept away to the United States amidst crazy diversification coupled with bankruptcy cases. In Germany alone, it is a case of thousands of companies. The reason for this failure lies in the rejection of Russian energy resources, the cost of which provided a helpful base for German economic well-being. Taking into account Europe’s current trends, it may well need a new Marshall Plan.  
The price ceiling policy regarding Russian energy resources devised by Washington also looks wild and delusional. The United States, unable in some cases to rob with weapons, resorts to the dollar and sanctions as a tool of coercion and subordination. Thus, it manipulates prices upward or downward, depending on whether it wishes to give a certain country an opportunity to earn money or not. In case of the price ceiling policy, the USA tried to oblige Russia to sell at a loss. That is a kind of casino — the one who invented the game owns the rules. However, it seems that the market itself is laughing at this nonsense, flying over these ceiling restrictions like over speed bumps.

Ramping up potential  

Belarus confidently maintains its line of energy security. Contrary to the West’s expectations of sanctions, our fuel and energy complex meets all contemporary criteria. 

The Head of State has set tasks for the long-term future, considering the development of the country and the world as a whole. Ramping up our energy self-sufficiency is at the core of national priorities, potentially leading to the establishment of a second nuclear power station.  

The demand for electricity worldwide is projected to experience a significant deficit. The new technologies driving humanity’s development appear to be energy-intensive and resource-consuming. This means that soon, watts may be equated with currency. Elon Musk will confirm it — cryptocurrency and AI require substantial amounts of electricity. In this regard, Belarus has already done a lot to align itself with the future.

Directive instead of benefit 

After joining the package of sanctions against Belarus and Russia, electricity prices in Poland and the Baltic States have skyrocketed by three to four times compared to ours. For Vilnius, Riga, and Tallinn, synchronously disconnecting from the BRELL energy ring is a political decision that is far removed from economic feasibility. In order to remain aligned with the energy euro-strategy, they are essentially sacrificing their own population and are now entirely dependent on market whims, procuring resources not from the most advantageous sources, but from those permitted by Washington and as directed by Brussels.

Fact

According to the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), electricity for Lithuania is classified as a deficit category, even with the prospect of transitioning to green sources.

By Aleksandr Tishchenko, national security expert