UN predicts natural phenomenon El Niño will last until April 2024
The ongoing El Niño natural phenomenon is set to last until at least April 2024, and 2023 and 2024 could become the warmest years in the history of weather and climate records, TASS reports
This forecast was compiled by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) – a specialised UN agency.
“The current El Niño phenomenon is expected to last until at least April 2024, influencing weather patterns and further increasing temperatures on both land and ocean,” the WMO said.
It is also noted that the phenomenon – as a result of which the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than usual by no more than 3°C – developed rapidly in July-August and acquired moderate strength by September 2023. The WMO assumes that this phenomenon is likely to peak between now and January 2024.
Experts believe that there’s a 90 percent likelihood it will persist throughout the upcoming winter and spring in the northern hemisphere. According to their forecasts, during the spring of 2024 this phenomenon ‘will gradually decrease’.
“The impact of El Niño on global temperatures usually becomes apparent a year after its development, in this case in 2024. As a result of record high land and sea-surface temperatures since June, the year 2023 is now on track to be the warmest year on record,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.
He also added that 2024 ‘may be even warmer’. This is clearly and unequivocally due to the contribution of the increasing concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases from human activities.
The meteorological organisation recalled that El Niño appears on average every 2-7 years and lasts from 9 to 12 months. This phenomenon is a natural climate model, associated with warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
