The Texas syndrome

Separatist movements are gaining strength in the United States and Europe

One of the signs of the emerging multipolar world is deglobalisation and creation of new centres of power, the very ‘poles’ around which independent states are concentrated. However, this process holds another, more particular but no less interesting one — the strengthening of centrifugal forces inside large and not very large countries. This trend has many guises — from decentralisation to open separatism. And while there is a redistribution of spheres of influence and a new anti-colonial struggle in the big world is ongoing, there is also unrest on local fronts...

Olga Pak 

Border passions

It goes without saying that the most attention is riveted on this topic in the context of the situation in Texas. Let us recall that since January 11th, a new round of struggle between the state administration and the federal government in Washington has flared up. The Texas National Guard took control of the most problematic border section with Mexico in Shelby Park, in the town of Eagle Pass on the banks of the Rio Grande River. Federal border guards, who set up a real camp for illegal immigrants there, were forced out. Eleven days later, the US Supreme Court decided to remove a 30-mile-long (about 48 km) wire fence on the USA–Mexico border in Texas installed as part of Governor Greg Abbott’s fight against the influx of migrants. However, things have not budged an inch — the governor refused to obey the decisions from the capital and declared a state of emergency in the state, starting to recruit volunteers to help the National Guard. Another 25 Republican governors expressed their solidarity with Abbott, and 10 of them, according to local media reports, sent their subordinate units to Texas.
The situation turned out to be in a state of limbo. The federal centre has been at a loss after Texas ignored the ultimatum to remove the barriers and let the Border Guard into Shelby Park until the morning of January 26th. 
Democratic senators from Texas have called on Biden to put the Texas National Guard under federal control, but this request has remained unanswered so far. It is known that the White House under Biden tends to make rather unorthodox decisions, yet they are clearly not ready to head for such a confrontation.

Get up, Texas?

While the National Guard is building new lines of defence and the Vice Governor of the state, Dan Patrick, threatens to wrap the entire border with Mexico with barbed wire (which is almost three thousand kilometres), supporters of state independence have sharply intensified in Texas. Just a month ago, when this epic was only reaching its peak, the people of Texas collected 139 thousand signatures in favour of holding a referendum on the state’s independence in November in parallel with the presidential elections. The Austin authorities rejected the signatures, but the very idea of gaining sovereignty continues to hover in the air.
In Texas, there is a plethora of national movements calling for the region’s independence as they have accumulated a lot of complaints against the federal centre. As long as presidents are Republicans, Texans moderate their tone since the elephants’ views are close to them. But when a Democrat becomes the owner of the Oval Office, conversations about the creation of the Texas Republic sharply intensify. Separatist communities oppose the LGBT agenda, loathe feminism, and cannot tolerate the eco-friendly politics claiming that it will eventually bring an end to the famous Texas beef farming and oil industry.
Nevertheless, it is premature to say that Texas will secede right now, with a number of states following its suit (judging by the Republicans’ determination), which will split the country into two.
Statements by such figures as member of the House of Representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene, who called for a ‘national divorce’ between the red and blue states, are rather an element of large
pre-election bidding than a real declaration of intent to create a new Confederation.

Europe divided

Yet, centrifugal tendencies in the Western world shall not live by Texas alone. Let us fast forward closer to our native penates — there are also plenty of regions in Western Europe that gravitate towards independence. 
When they talk about independence movements west of the Belarusian borders, they first of all recall Great Britain with its Irish and Scottish problems, and Spain where rebellious Catalonia and the Basque Country periodically revolt. All these problems have been around for a long time in a smouldering format. Sometimes there happen exacerbations, such as in the spring of 2017, when the Catalans held a referendum on secession from Spain.
Today, the national liberation movement in Northern Ireland is fragmented, which does not allow small groups to exert any serious influence on British politics, as it was during the confrontation in the middle of the last century. In addition, violence, towards which radicals gravitate, is no longer perceived unambiguously positively by part of the population and Republican politicians. For example, the Saoradh party carefully dissociates itself from any links with the New IRA members. 
The Scottish problem also creates a headache for London, though of a slightly different nature. Edinburgh politicians are trying to resolve the issue peacefully by initiating referendums. The first attempt in 2014 was unsuccessful — 55.3 percent of Scots opposed secession from the United Kingdom. In 2022, the Scots tried to launch the preparation procedure for a plebiscite once again. However, the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom unanimously ruled that, in accordance with the Scotland Act of 1998, the Scottish Parliament does not have the right to pass bills on issues related to the constitutional structure of the United Kingdom. 
France has its hot spot, too. This refers to Corsica, where Corsican National Liberation Front operates. It seeks either broad autonomy or full independence of the island and recognition of Corsicans as a separate people from the French. In 2014, the front announced the transition from power-based methods of struggle to diplomacy, yet in 2022 it took responsibility for 16 attacks altogether. Since then, the situation in Corsica has remained tense — France is not ready to grant independence to the island, although autonomy and broad concessions are already under discussion.

The intensification of separatist sentiments in the West during the period of global instability we are experiencing now can also be explained by the disagreement of the population of certain regions with the policies pursued by government groups. 

Indeed, why should Texas participate in Pan-American risk-taking activities that recently have had a tendency to end up with regular failures for the hegemon? Or why should any other region suffer economic losses just because the country’s leadership decided to play sanctions roulette and unexpectedly shot itself in the foot? It is quite possible that nation states that have not yet been born would have chosen a different course of development, more constructive than the one that the entire West eventually embarked on. Therefore, it can be stated that centrifugal processes will continue to intensify further, giving rise to new hotbeds of tension.

By Anton Popov