Posted:
02.04.2024 17:35:00
The labour market is taking an exam
Employment in Belarus and around the world — the best place to be is where we are
The major tasks of the socio-economic development of the country set for 2023 were completed. What we have now is an evident outstripping growth in household incomes and effective containment of inflation. In addition, Belarus maintains a high level of employment. According to the Ministry of Economy, the number of part-time employees has decreased by more than 2.3 times and the number of downtime has been curbed by 2.7 times. This means that Belarusians can look confidently to the future, unlike residents of many Western countries, where the labour market situation is far from as rosy as some might think.
The President of Belarus,
Aleksandr Lukashenko,
“We must create a just society. Those who studied well and graduated from university or did not graduate but have gifted hands and are good specialists — the country can provide with a place where they can earn. We have time. We have good teachers and mentors in production. Go for it! I will repeat — the salary is to be earned. This is a fair approach.”
From the Address to the Belarusian people and the National Assembly, on March 31st, 2023
Aleksandr Lukashenko,
“We must create a just society. Those who studied well and graduated from university or did not graduate but have gifted hands and are good specialists — the country can provide with a place where they can earn. We have time. We have good teachers and mentors in production. Go for it! I will repeat — the salary is to be earned. This is a fair approach.”
From the Address to the Belarusian people and the National Assembly, on March 31st, 2023
The global labour market is restless
At the very beginning of the year, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) issued an alarming statement — the unemployment rate in the world will grow in 2024. Experts are also concerned about growing social inequality. Where do the problems stem from, one would think? The global unemployment rate fell from 5.3 percent to 5.1 percent last year, and indicators of job shortages and labour force participation improved, as well. Nevertheless, the authors of the ILO report World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2024 warn about the instability of the situation. They even predict a deterioration in the prospects of the labour market outlook and a worsening global unemployment situation. According to their forecasts, the level of the latter will rise to 5.2 percent in 2024. As for the current incomes of the population, they decreased even in most G20 countries in 2023; the real wage growth was observed only in China, Russia and Mexico, India and Türkiye.The unemployment rate in high-income countries stood at 4.5 percent in 2023. Compare it with the Belarusian 3.5 percent (see the infographic) and it will immediately become clear — the grass is not always greener on the other side of the fence.
According to ILO experts, the poverty rate among the working population in the world will grow. The COVID consequences also contribute to the overall picture. The report notes that as a rule, people who have returned to the labour market after the pandemic do not work as many hours as before, and the number of their sick days is much higher.
According to the ILO Director General, Gilbert F. Houngbo, the ‘imbalances are not just a temporary aspect of pandemic recovery but rather structural’. “Falling living standards and weak productivity combined with persistent inflation create the conditions for greater inequality in the world. And without greater social justice we will never have a sustainable recovery,” Houngbo emphasised.
The growing imbalance
It is stormy now in a once stable and prosperous Europe. A month ago, the news appeared with reference to a report by EURES, the European Employment Services network and platform, claiming that the European Union is currently suffering from a major labour market imbalance. There is an acute shortage of personnel in some industries, and unemployment is growing in some areas. The main problems are the digital transformation of the economy that requires retraining of personnel in new technologies, the transition to a climate-neutral economy where abandoning fossil fuels simultaneously creates and eliminates jobs, and the decline in the working-age population. The shortage of personnel is experienced by healthcare, IT, construction, and mechanical engineering spheres. Brussels puts a stake on optimising the recognition process for qualifications obtained outside the European Union. Thus, the EU is planning to more actively attract staff from other countries. At the same time, Western officials do not reveal what lies in store for local people in terms of job opportunities.By the way, data from The 2024 Survey of Economists published earlier by the Financial Times newspaper indicate that most experts believe that the European economy is in recession. FT respondents rated the labour market outlook as gloomy — they believe that the unemployment rate in the Eurozone will rise from 6.5 percent in October 2023 to 6.9 percent by the end of 2024.
A time of possibilities
The labour market of our country currently boasts the lowest unemployment rate in recent years. It amounts to 3.5 percent, while employers declare the availability of almost 135 thousand job vacancies. It means there are no grounds for an increase in the number of unemployed people.Based on a household sample survey, Belstat has confirmed the data of Belarus’ Ministry of Labour and Social Security regarding the unemployment rate. For the record of skeptics: the calculations were carried out in accordance with the methodology of the International Labour Organisation. Another point — according to the statistics, the employment rate of the country’s population, which is the employment ratio to population aged 15-74 years, amounted to 67.3 percent last year. The difference in figures between the year 2023 and 2022 (67.7 percent) is minimal, which also testifies to the stable situation on the Belarusian labour market.
Also significant is the fact that the growth of average wages outstrips the inflation rate. The latter stood at 5.8 percent at year end 2023, while real wages across the entire country went up by 11 percent. “Salaries have been growing both in the real sector of the economy and among public sector employees who make 20 percent of workers performing public services in education, healthcare, culture, social services,” stressed Minister of Labour and Social Security Irina Kostevich. “This is a confirmation that the high-quality and efficient operation of the economy makes it possible to fully increase incomes, ensuring the appropriate growth, including for the categories of citizens to whom the state has obligations.”
The current economic situation does not cause any serious concerns, either. The major drivers of growth in 2023 were industry, construction and trade. These industries are also the main customers of personnel. A number of employers experience a shortage of labour resources, which is largely due to a shortage of skilled workforce. The labour market demand pattern is characterised by stability and consistency.Ensuring effective employment of the population remains one of the priorities of Belarus’ social policy. The State Employment Service provides free-of-charge services to both job seekers and employers. Its work can be considered quite effective. Moreover, the Employment Service has been predicting the demand dynamics for certain professions for a number of years in order to enable the assessment of employment opportunity, if necessary. In particular, experts have suggested that in 2024, there will be good employment prospects in Minsk for car drivers, bricklayers, head cashiers, house painters, operators of computer-controlled machines, cooks, metalworkers, etc. As for office employees — accountants, engineers, teachers, economists, legal advisers, and doctors will be in high demand.
By Aleksandr Nesterov
