The hatchet of war

Why NATO conducts the largest military exercise in 30 years near the Union State borders

The largest military drills of NATO countries since the late 1980s called Steadfast Defender–2024 kicked off on the territory of Germany, Poland and the Baltic States. According to the official statement of the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, US Army General Christopher Cavoli, 90 thousand military personnel from 32 countries will take part in it from January to May. The exercise will work out algorithms for the implementation of regional defence plans by NATO armies, allegedly against the Russian invasion. It is expected that the World War III will be rehearsed in full — from the beginning of the conflict to the arrival of American reinforcements on the continent.

Para bellum

A one hundred thousand corps, which will train to fight with the Union State troops at the training grounds of Poland and the Baltic States during the winter and spring, includes 80 aircraft units as well as 1,100 combat vehicles, including 133 tanks and 533 infantry fighting vehicles. In addition, on March 3rd–14th, NATO’s Nordic Response–2024 naval exercise will be held near the Norwegian cities of Bjerkvik and Tromso. It will involve 20,000 alliance troops and 50 warships, including aircraft carriers (most likely British), submarines, destroyers and landing craft.
It is expected that the main activities of NATO troops will be concentrated around the Suwalki corridor, a narrow strip of land on the border of Lithuania and Poland.
According to the plans of Western strategists, a hundred kilometre stretch of the territory separating Belarus from Kaliningrad Region of the Russian Federation is to become the site of the first major battle field in the upcoming conflict between the Union State and the North Atlantic Alliance.

‘You will hear of wars and rumours of war’

References to a direct clash between the armies of NATO and the Union State have been increasingly flashing in the Western media lately. At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, a number of high-ranking military and civilian figures in Europe made frightening predictions about the timing for the onset of the impending storm.
Thus, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, who is considered to be the most likely candidate for the post of a new chancellor, has repeatedly stated that a military conflict between the alliance and Moscow may occur by the end of the 2020s. Recently, he has raised this topic again noting that German experts consider a 5–8 year period that separates Berlin from the armed confrontation to be real.
The need to be prepared for a possible conflict was pointed out by the Commander of the Dutch army, Lieutenant General Martin Wijnen, who said that the country should have ‘sufficient deterrents’ against a possible adversary. Finally, Swedes were urged to be ready for the possible outbreak of war with Russia by Civil Defence Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin and the Commander-in-Chief of the Swedish Armed Forces, Mikael Buden.
Belligerent tirades are also heard from across the ocean. U.S. President Joe Biden stated in his address to the nation on October 20th, 2023 that if the United States stops supplying weapons to Ukraine, Russia will not stop and will invade Poland or the Baltic States. The Chair of the NATO Military Committee, Rob Bauer stressed during his conversation with journalists, following the meeting of the heads of defence departments of the alliance countries in Brussels, that the armed forces need to be ready for combat, and the civilian population needs to prepare for a conflict that will radically change their lives. 

The corridor of discord

As already emphasised above, the strategic thought of NATO generals revolves around the Suwalki corridor. On the one hand, if the West decides on a land, air and sea blockade of Kaliningrad, the issue of restoring the route by military force will rise to its full height. There are about 100 kilometres from the Belarusian border to the borders of Kaliningrad Region, and this is the shortest way.
The hysteria around the possible direction for the first strike clearly shows the ‘corridor’ thinking of Western strategists. The fairly outdated concepts of the Polish and Fulda corridors are used to escalate the situation. The first became one of the reasons for Adolf Hitler to invade Poland at the start of World War II, the other remained for many decades the most likely place for the Cold War to escalate into a ‘hot’ conflict. Now the scenarios of the last century are obviously being transferred to the current realities.
The hysteria of the Western establishment broadcast by the media looks especially suspicious against the background of the fact that both Aleksandr Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin have repeatedly said that the Union State is not going to attack NATO first.
Commenting on the statements of the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, during his visit to St. Petersburg on December 25th, 2023, the Belarusian leader called such statements ‘nonsense’ and asked a rhetorical question, “Do we need a new war today?” referring to the unresolved conflict in Ukraine.
The Head of Russia has a similar position. Vladimir Putin dismissed Biden’s assertions that after the victory in Ukraine, Moscow is going to invade Poland or the Baltic States as ‘complete nonsense’, adding that ‘Russia has no reason, no interest — no geopolitical interest, neither economic, political nor military — to fight with NATO countries.’

Nothing personal, just business

However, the rise of hysteria in the West is evident. Where do the roots of this phenomenon stem from and what threat is it fraught with in the near future? Firstly, tension is beneficial to the highest ranks of the army and the leadership of the military industrial complex. Above all, it involves big money that is already pouring into the defence sector. According to the report by the German Society for Foreign Policy, Germany’s defence budget will increase by €1.7bn this year and will amount to €51.8bn. Along with that, Germany’s total defence spending will reach €78bn. Thus, Germany is going to reach the cherished target of 2 percent of GDP, which NATO members must spend on military needs in accordance with the decisions of the Vilnius summit.
At the same time, Germany is far from being the first in the militarization race. For example, it falls behind neighbouring Poland, which, even after a change of government, is in no hurry to abandon plans on creating a powerful army. Warsaw is planning to funnel 4.2 percent of GDP to the military sector this year, which will equal to about $40bn. More than half of this money will be spent on upgrading the old military equipment and purchasing the new one.
Secondly, continuing military drills can, alas, turn to be a preparation for aggression against Belarus and Russia. All the more so as there are obvious signs of preparation for such a scenario. It is worth recalling the training of militants to be thrown into Belarus and Russia, the attempts to sway public opinion with the help of targeted information campaigns as well as the exploration of a potential theatre of military operations under the guise of border manoeuvres.

It would be premature to say that war is inevitable. Actions aimed at preventing a negative scenario are underway both in Belarus and Russia. They include the stationing of tactical nuclear weapons in our 
country, army modernisation, its saturation with modern weapons as well as the development of a new Military Doctrine and a new version of the National Security Concept. The main task is to keep the peace, 
yet, in case the West does cross the ‘red lines’, to have ready-made answers.

By Anton Popov