The grand mineboard

Why the US is trying not to expand its influence, but to reduce the potential of other regions in the world

Political scientists and analysts are increasingly recalling Zbigniew Brzezinski’s bestseller The Grand Chessboard. Indeed, there are some allusions to the current geopolitical situation with the concepts that the great (opponents can also be great) White House strategist described in his work in 1997. However there is one fundamental difference. Brzezinski was not a pacifist, but flew at the head of squadrons of American hawks. He considered the United States the undisputed hegemon, not even allowing himself to think that any power could equal it. He, to put it mildly, disliked the USSR, and then Russia… Nonetheless, Brzezinski was a representative of the old American political school. Tough, militaristic, but aware of its responsibility. He believed in the unattainable superiority of the United States and tried to strengthen it in the world. He cynically viewed the whole world as a chessboard, and other countries as impersonal pieces. But still, he was a political grandmaster who tried to be the strongest player. Alas, the intellectuals have died out in the White House. Almost degenerated during the years of the unipolar world. From chess, they fell to banal fun in the banal Minesweeper (a standard game in Windows). They just place mines and bombs on the chessboard, turning the geopolitical space into a minefield. 

Fall competition

How was the United States of the Cold War and 1990s different from America today? In fact, these are two different states. At least with completely different political elites and, accordingly, goals and aspirations. Washington of the last century pursued tripping a very aggressive policy. But at least there was a specific goal — to become a hegemon, set out the rules to the entire planet and monitor their observance.
Today, Washington is reminiscent of a life-weary pensioner who wants to retire, but stubbornly does not leave the ‘master’ chair, fearing a more active ‘youth’. The White House still wants to dominate the world. But the key strategy is containment: not to get ahead by themselves, even tripping competitors, but not to let others grow.
China, Russia, Turkey… To a certain extent, the EU. It is naive to believe that the States want to be present in Poland, Lithuania or Ukraine. They do not really need these regions. These are just the squares on the board, on which mines of tension are placed. And while these problems are dealt with in the regions, the White House can rest again.

Asian Pandora’s box 

‘The Grand Chessboard’ idea as a field of geopolitical events has not lost its relevance. Let’s just look at it from the point of view of Washington’s updated strategy. The first key point is Afghanistan, whose favourable geographical position has become a tragedy.
By the way, the White House has long been hatching a plan to withdraw from Afghanistan. But why?
First, the Americans actually handed over Afghanistan to the Taliban movement, concluding an agreement with them (!), and then they quickly retreated. Moreover, they ‘forgot’ weapons and ammunition worth almost 85 billion dollars!
To put it simply, the White House softly and unobtrusively armed the Taliban. At the same time, it did not cross them out of the list of terrorists. Therefore, having allowed them to power in Kabul, they froze the country’s reserves — almost 10 billion dollars. Leave weapons to terrorists, but take away their money. Illogical? That’s a matter of opinion.
What is Afghanistan today? A poor, almost starving country, but at the same time saturated with fairly modern weapons and dual-use equipment: communication systems, surveillance, and so on. Sooner or later, this arsenal will ‘wake up’ and be used to make money… Neither China, nor Russia, nor Iran, nor India can ignore this significant problem in the region. So far, the Afghan time bomb has not worked, but it is reliably equipped, and the fuse has already been cocked. It can pop at any moment.
The second hotbed of tension in Asia was artificially created by the Americans by a series of official delegations to Taipei. The aggravation of relations with Taiwan distracts China. And also destroys established commercial ties. How this will affect the economy is still unknown. Different opinions are expressed, but they are all negative.

Conquest of Europe

This conquest is, of course, figurative. In fact, the European Union is collapsing before our eyes. It all started with Brexit, when Britain decided to break away from the European community and focus on the Anglo-Saxon world. Since then, London has had very cool relations with the mainland. The diplomatic and information skirmish over migration issues between Paris and London sometimes breaks out quite exciting. Meanwhile, Albion depends on the supply of food and many other goods from the EU. In short, there are plenty of reasons for controversy.
In the north, Washington played out the Polish project. But the key topic for the US is Ukraine. Kyiv was deceived, let itself be deceived, or the Ukrainian establishment has other motivations for hugging Washington, but under the auspices of friendship with the United States, the country was drawn into a serious conflict. Which, in fact, looks very illogical from all sides. Despite the combative rhetoric, the White House withdrew from Kyiv’s problems. Throws some money, some weapons. But just enough to prolong the fighting.
The Ukrainian crisis has ‘destroyed’ the European space. First, it destroyed effective and mutually beneficial ties between the EU and the EAEU. Both politically and logistically. Second, it split the European Union itself. 
It suddenly turned out that there is no unified energy policy as such in Western Europe. And when the crisis broke out (the reasons are a separate topic), each country found itself facing an acute problem on its own. All this together promotes deintegration.
Therefore, the EU no longer poses a serious threat as the centre of economic power. Whatever the outcome of the Ukrainian conflict, it will take a long time to restore stability in the European Union.
Ukrainian conflict affects Turkey as well, which today has not only to solve its economic problems (objectively, they are quite acute), but also to try to restore calm at its borders.
At the same time, the Americans are throwing in a new ‘grenade’ — the Kosovo conflict has been deactivated. Although it is not the same as the Ukrainian one in terms of its scale and potential, but the outbreak in the Balkans partially blocks the Mediterranean logistics corridor for the northern and central European states.

Friendship in a minefield

If we add long-standing conflicts to fresh hot spots — Syria, Iraq, Libya, Lebanon, then in fact it turns out that the United States has surrounded Eurasia with a chain of minefields. Some charges have already worked, others only threaten to detonate. And these fiery points allow Washington to preserve at least the appearance of leadership.
On the other hand, the White House clearly does not take into account the China-Russia factor. At the beginning of the century, these two countries were seen as competitors for influence on the Asian continent. Now the interaction between Moscow and Beijing is rapidly reaching a new level. Both political and economic. The two countries have more and more points for co-operation and fewer topics for competition amid external bacchanalia. 
Having tried to cut off Eurasia from the external contour with hotbeds of tension, the States catalysed integration processes. Did Washington outplay itself? After all, it was the China-Russia ties that were traditionally feared in the White House, since these two countries could become a powerful economic centre capable of attracting other states of the region.
This scenario is the most obvious. By the way, Donald Trump is already openly accusing Biden that, with sanctions and unsuccessful diplomacy (to put it mildly), he ‘pushed Russia and China into each other’s arms’. The American nightmare is coming true. Apparently, we are now on the threshold of the ‘great Eurasian integration’, which may soon become a driver for the development of the world economy.

By Vladimir Volchkov
Photos from open sources