Playing with fire

Why are Western countries persistently trying to rekindle frozen conflicts around the world?

The beginning of August turned out to be really hot: in the first week alone, the world found itself on the verge of one large-scale military conflict and two local ones. Moreover, the trace of Western politicians was seen in all episodes. They took up the matter in their own hands in Taiwan, and in the Karabakh and Kosovo cases they preferred the unkind old path of intrigues and secret diplomatic (and not so diplomatic) operations. The strategy of ‘controlled chaos’, developed in the bowels of the intelligence communities of the West, does not lose its relevance.

August again, and the Balkans again

The conflict in Kosovo was the first to break out. Moreover, this happened too symbolically: sirens and alarms sounded in the north of the region right on the eve of the anniversary of the start of the First World War, which crawled around the world just from the Balkans.
The reason for the aggravation was the laws that increase discrimination against Serbs. The fact that no blood was shed is good news.
The United States and Britain are interested in the escalation of the Kosovo crisis, which has been going on for the fourth decade. They need another heavy defeat of Serbia, which still cannot decide with whom it is: with Russia and China or with the European Union and America. Britain is playing the role of a fox with matches in the current confrontation. Gentlemen from the banks of the Thames established strong contacts not only with the politicians of Kosovo, but also subjugated the absolute majority of the authoritative Muslim leaders of the region.

They are now regularly promoting a pro-Western position in their appeals, accusing the Serbs of all mortal sins and, along the way, not forgetting to express support for Ukraine. It got to the point that the call of the Mufti of Bosnia and Herzegovina, highly respected in the Balkans, Mustafa Tserich, for a ceasefire in the Ukrainian conflict, taking into account the interests of all parties, was completely ignored.
The unforgettable Liz Truss, who may soon take the Prime Minister’s chair, plays a special role in strengthening British influence in Kosovo. As head of the Foreign Ministry, it was she who lobbied for most of the sanctions against the Republika Srpska and personal restrictions on its leaders. Last December, Truss gathered the foreign ministers of the countries of the Balkan region in London, where she announced her intention to strengthen political and diplomatic representation in it. At the same time, for the first time in history, Albion appointed its own special envoy to the peninsula. It was the former head of the NATO military committee and chief of staff of the British Ministry of Defence Stuart Peach. The candidacy of Mr Peach clearly shows that the actions of the British in the Balkans will obviously not bring any peace and tranquillity.
At the same time, non-profit organisations began to work more actively in the region, the intricate threads of management of which stretch to London. The main narrative, as always, is clearly anti-Serb.
Organisations are broadcasting on every corner about the fault of the Serbs in the massacre in Srebrenica. In addition, the opening of an exemplary ‘troll factory’ is being prepared, which will be located in Sarajevo under British control and will be engaged in the ‘fight against disinformation’, that is, to produce fakes about the Serbs and their leaders, along the way fuelling hatred for ‘outsiders’ in Kosovo.

The mountains are shooting

Since the beginning of August, the situation in the zone of the Armenian-Azerbaijani confrontation has escalated. Ceasefire violations happen regularly, but this time the loud statements from Baku coincided with the real advance of the Azerbaijani forces. The main direction of their efforts was determined: the Lachin corridor connecting Artsakh with Armenia. The Azerbaijanis managed to occupy several important heights in the area and hit a number of military targets. Officials said the country had carried out Operation Retribution and intended to demand the complete demilitarisation of Karabakh.

At the same time, more and more often information about the concentration of troops to the borders of the Syunik Region emerges in the media. It is also of interest to Azerbaijan in the light of the possible occupation of another corridor — Zangezur, which would connect it with Nakhichevan. And this, in turn, would make it possible to establish direct communication with Turkey, because the common border is now ridiculously small and is only 9–11 kilometres, and in the Nakhchivan Region, cut off from the rest of Azerbaijan.
On March 31st, British Deputy Minister of Defence James Heappey visited Azerbaijan. Officially, of course, defence co-operation was discussed, but it is unlikely that such a high rank came for the sake of formalities.
Why should Albion kindle the seemingly subsided fire of a big conflict in the region? Firstly, this is one of the easiest ways to create another hot spot near the borders of Russia, diverting its attention from the special military operation and at the same time undermining its authority as a donor of peace.
After all, simultaneously with the start of hostilities near the Lachin corridor, a whole army of both Azerbaijani and Armenian bots landed on social media again, who began to discredit the peacekeepers of the Russian Federation, who were trying with all their might to stop the bloodshed. Moreover, the instigators of discontent work skilfully: the Armenian audience is told that the peacekeeping contingent is not fulfilling its function, and Russia itself is ready to betray Armenia at any moment, exposing it to Baku.
Azerbaijanis are being told that the peacekeepers are weak and will not be able to stop their valiant troops. At the same time, the topic of replacing the ‘blue helmets’ from Russia with the French is being actively discussed: they say that they will defend Armenian interests. After all, the two countries have so much in common. For example, Charles Aznavour(yan).
Secondly, the strategic interest of the West in the Transcaucasia is also to contain Iran, which Joe Biden threatened with war during the Middle East tour. The Persians are reacting nervously to the possibility of seizing the Syunik Region in favour of Baku and have several times declared intervention if Aliyev decides to invade.

Flying over the dragon’s nest

The newsmaker of early August was the Speaker of the US Congress Nancy Pelosi, who decided to pull the Chinese tiger by the moustache, organising one of the most grandiose provocations of the 21st century. She failed to brightly end her life on board the plane shot by the valiant aces of the Celestial Empire. Fortunately, the Chinese leader Xi Jinping, it seems, was not going to give the order to kill the elderly lady. But Pelosi was able to sow enmity between the two superpowers and put Taiwan under attack.
Actually, this was the purpose of the flight. This point on the speaker’s tour did not bring any practical value for Taipei, but the resonance and consequences of the action threaten to become fatal. After all, Nancy flew away to the still safe States, and the rebellious island was left face to face with a seriously angry one and a half-billion power, which rightfully considers this territory to be its part.

With a bright and dramatic show put on August 2nd, the US intended to succeed in any case. If the burning Pelosi plane crashed into the Pacific Ocean, then this could serve as a serious casus belli, entangling the Celestial Empire into a difficult and completely unnecessary conflict now. Otherwise, which happened, the American media people would start spreading the news around the world that China caved in, lost in the psychological confrontation, which means it’s too early for it to sign up for superpowers.
However, the United States did not take into account an important nuance: the Celestial Empire has many centuries of historical experience and can play much better in the long run than anyone in the world. And the success of the mischievous old woman’s flight over the dragon’s nest only served as the start of the implementation of China’s own strategy towards Taiwan. 
It is unlikely that we are going to see the opening of the Pacific front and large-scale naval battles. But it is quite possible to organise a blockade of the island, which China has been demonstrating in recent days, extending the exercises just on the main trade routes and tightening the sand loop ever tighter: stopping the supply of sand to the island will not only cause the collapse of the construction industry, but also hit the production of microchips.

The collective West, led by America and the ever-growing power of Britain, has clearly set itself the task of speeding up the unfreezing of a whole series of smouldering conflicts around the world. For ‘developed democracies’, world chaos is one of the few available means of maintaining not only hegemony, but also a banal order in their territories.

By Anton Popov