Opinion: EU crossed all red lines
There are riots on the EU borders. French President Emmanuel Macron announced sending troops to Ukraine, and other European countries are supplying the latter with high-tech weapons. In his talk with Alfa Radio, the Dean of the Journalism Department at the Belarusian State University, political expert Aleksei Belyaev, speculated on whether the EU attempts can cross the existing red lines and lead to disaster.
As noted by the expert, the European Union has already crossed all the red lines. “Actually, all the previously drawn lines were crossed when the final military stage of the special military operation began and a real undisguised war was unleashed. We see that Western Europe is now not deterred even by a possible response for its supply of the newest high-tech weapons to Ukraine. Mercenaries also periodically come into view: they are either killed or return to their homeland crippled and start telling everyone how hard it is to fight in Ukraine. One way or another, the direct presence of European armed forces in the Ukrainian theatre of operations is already being demonstrated publicly,” he explained.
Mr. Belyaev stressed that there are no more red lines, and the possibility of using nuclear weapons is the main question left, “An Iranian newspaper published an article, in which the situation of Europe is very critically considered: allegedly, it really risks running into a retaliatory nuclear strike if it fails to stop. An interesting point arises: NATO’s Article 5 reads that an attack on one member of the alliance is an attack on all members. For example, if tactical nuclear weapons are used in Ukraine, this act will not impose any obligations on NATO, since Ukraine is not a member of the alliance, it will not officially join it for a very long time – if ever. However, even if Russia warns that the red lines are being crossed by supplying TAURUS missiles by Germany, for example, or by intense deliveries of arms by France, this may still lead to the situation that a certain decision-making centre on the European continent will be eventually attacked. I doubt that Washington will try to support its European allies by attacking back in such a situation. In short, it may consider that the US has not been hit, so they may respond with no retaliatory attacks. The nuclear power of the whole of Europe is incomparable with the power of the Russian Federation, and only the United States can rival it in terms of nuclear potential. In this situation, the events may develop interestingly, since the rejection of contractual relations is possible. This possibility of rejection is increasing even more if Trump is in power, and this will not be long in coming.”
The expert added that the military phase of the ongoing conflict may end by summer or early autumn if no active support is provided to Ukraine. “There will be then no threat of crossing these red lines at all. Then, perhaps, some new agreements will be concluded. In this case, Russia will definitely have to make every effort to create a security belt, sign everything on its own terms and dictate peace to Europe. Otherwise, it will only be a continuation of this war – just slightly delayed and stretched out in time," Mr. Belyaev concluded.
