New round of escalation

Will high-profile killings in Lebanon and Iran cause a full-scale war in the Middle East?

One of the most troubled regions of the planet has once again become the main newsmaker of the world’s news agencies recently. On July 31st, Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the political bureau of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas, was assassinated in Tehran. Earlier in the day, the Israeli Air Force attacked the Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut’s southern suburbs targeting one of the group’s main leaders — Fuad Shukr. So far nothing is known about his fate — according to the IDF, Shukr is dead, yet Hezbollah representatives claim that the debris clearing operations continue. 

Lebanese trap

Another surge in violence began after the end of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the United States, where he met with Joe Biden and Donald Trump, receiving assurances of support from both politicians. The end of his trip mysteriously coincided with an incident in the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, where 12 children and teenagers aged 10 to 16 were killed and 42 people were injured on Saturday as a result of a rocket strike. The Lebanese Hezbollah movement was immediately blamed for the attack. The IDF reported that the strike was carried out with an Iranian-made 240mm unguided rocket Falaq-1 — this way Tel Aviv linked the alleged actions of the Lebanese with Iran’s position. After that, a number of people, including Israel’s Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and Prime Minister Netanyahu, vowed that Israel ‘will not remain silent’ and ‘will hit the enemy hard’.
There are many oddities around the attack on the Druze settlement. Hezbollah, which has been shelling northern Israel with drones and rockets since October last year, denied any involvement in the strike and, according to the group’s statement, informed the UN that the tragedy was caused by an Israeli interceptor missile. Identifying the culprit in this case is a very difficult task. 
For Israel, the incident is an excuse to increase pressure on the group entrenched in Lebanon. In this regard, the Druze of the Golan Heights is a ‘convenient’ target. Locals consider themselves Syrians and their land occupied, and many have rejected Israeli citizenship. 
However, the strike on the stadium was still used as an excuse to strike at Beirut. The fate of one of Hezbollah’s key commanders is unknown, but the very fact of the attack that resulted in the death of at least four civilians, including two children, and the wounding of 74 civilians, creates prerequisites for a new round of escalation.
Now the ball is in Hezbollah’s court, and the further development of the situation depends on how large-scale the movement’s response will be. 
The leadership of the Lebanese group has several options for action. On the one hand, it will certainly continue and even intensify the shelling of northern Israel, which will force the IDF to deploy more resources on that front and entail increased losses among the military of the Jewish state. However, it is unlikely that such a scenario will become a pretext for the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. On the other hand, Hezbollah may raise the stakes and expand the strike zone, as well as leverage its missile arsenal — which, according to experts, can number from 100,000 to 150,000 missiles and drones — much more widely. Experts estimate the probability of the first scenario higher, yet the second one cannot be ruled out. In that case, Israel will have a hard time. During the spring and summer, there were published several videos of the destruction of the Iron Dome radars and launchers in northern Israel using FPV drones and Almas ATGMs.

Death in Tehran

The assassination in Tehran of the head of the Hamas political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, who attended the inauguration of Iran’s new president Masoud Pezeshkian on July 31st, became a much more dangerous incident. The circumstances are still not completely clear, but local media report that it may be a high-precision air missile strike. Officially, Israel did not admit guilt as of the time of handing over the material, while The Jerusalem Post newspaper has reported that Prime Minister Netanyahu banned ministers and Knesset deputies from making any comments on this topic. 
Haniyeh’s murder has already been condemned in many countries. The President of the Islamic Republic stressed that Tehran would make the ‘terrorist occupiers’ regret their actions. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei also promised ‘severe punishment’. The Hamas movement believes that Israel co-ordinated the attack with Washington, and the Houthis and Hezbollah are going to fight with even greater determination. The Pentagon head, Lloyd Austin, in turn, promised to defend Israel in the event of an attack, which indirectly indicates that both sides were interested in the murder.
Haniyeh’s death is undoubtedly a heavy blow for Palestinians, yet it is far from being a fatal one. Hamas has an extensive structure with high interchangeability of even key members. In addition, Haniyeh was more involved in the political side of the Palestinian struggle for freedom than in military planning; therefore his death will not affect the course of the battle in the Gaza Strip. 
The situation with the ceasefire and the hostage exchange negotiations risks reaching an impasse. It was Haniyeh who co-ordinated this process on the part of Hamas, and now the prospects for reaching agreements look illusory.
Whoever killed the Hamas leader clearly set an additional task of publicly insulting Tehran, because Haniyeh died as a guest of the Islamic Republic — more so, on the night following the inauguration of the country’s president. The rhetoric of officials and the media sentiment suggest that retaliation will take place. The near future will show whether it will be large-scale; however, the trend towards escalation and attempts to involve Iran in a major war in the Middle East is obvious.

American trail

The situation around Haniyeh’s death looks very suspicious. Those who follow the conflict may have noticed a curious tendency — as soon as a timid light begins to shine at the end of the tunnel, someone immediately pours gasoline on the fire. Whoever does this is trying to drag as many countries of the region as possible into the expanding Middle East funnel. 
Haniyeh, who was appointed Israel’s main enemy after the raid on October 7th last year, is dead, and even if there is no official recognition, Netanyahu will be able to put down this victory on his account, which will increase the prime minister’s rating.
However, this death is even more beneficial for the United States, which sees its number one goal as dragging Iran into a war with Israel and completely destabilising the already shaky system of checks and balances in the region. 

It seems that it is impossible to achieve at least some kind of détente without excluding the American factor, since high-profile and well-timed murders neutralise all attempts to bring about peace over and over again. 

By Anton Popov