Defence factor

Working out the deployment of non-strategic nuclear weapons by Belarus is an adequate response to the West’s transferring the economy to military rails and escalation of tension in the region

The clear loss of the NATO countries that have put a stake on conflict escalation in Ukraine forces Washington, London and Paris to take extreme measures — to unleash a military hysteria and bring the planet to the point of no return, that is a third world war. The collective West led by neo-fascists cannot forgive us the Victory of 1945 and is obsessed with the idea of revenge. Why is it doomed to fail? And how do nuclear deterrence forces allow us to ensure peace and order on the Belarusian land?

Conceiving an ammo plan

European Commissioner for the Internal Market Thierry Breton declared at the opening of the EU–Ukraine Defence Industries Forum held on May 6th, 2024 in Brussels that the EU was currently producing one million artillery shells and was expected to produce two million per year starting from the following year. Breton openly expressed the opinion that the EU should shift its arms industry to a ‘war economy mode’. “I am pushing for defence industries in Europe to enter a war economy mode, so they can produce faster and more, with the aim of continuing to support Ukraine, now and in the long term,” the EU official added.
The other day, the restless and belligerent Head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, made some loud statements again, “Weapons and ammunition for Ukraine must be produced faster and more efficiently, preferably on the territory of Ukraine itself.” The Head of Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Dmitry Kuleba, when speaking to representatives of the EU defence industries, stated that Europe had already entered a new arms race and in order to win it, it was imperative to switch the economy of EU countries to military rails. According to him, there is no turning back.
Turning to specific proposals, the Ukrainian Minister urged to bring EU weapons to a single standard, since today, the weapons of one country do not fit the shells manufactured in another country. “Currently, French-made shells fit only French-made weapons, German-made shells only fit German-made weapons, and Polish-made ones only fit Polish-made guns,” he noted. In addition, Dmitry Kuleba advocated the introduction of planning in arms industry, as well as investments in Ukrainian industry and production.
It can be stated that the EU is turning into a military alliance. This spring, the European Commission proposed spending €1.5 billion to put the economies of EU countries on a military track by jointly purchasing weapons and military equipment from defence companies, which is expected to encourage them to boost production and develop new technologies.

Growing competition 

The current militarisation of Europe is exacerbated by the bellicose rhetoric of the United States suggesting that NATO troops may enter Ukraine in case of defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Before that, French President Emmanuel Macron had come up with the idea of sending NATO troops into Ukraine if Kiev was defeated. In December 2023, a senior White House official admitted at a briefing for the U.S. media that Russia had been able to put the economy on a war footing by refocusing industry on the production of weapons and military hardware that were needed to continue the fight. 
Back in February 2023, the House Armed Services Committee (HASC) stated that the U.S. military-industrial complex was ‘not ready to face military confrontation between great powers’. HASC Chairman Mike Rogers remarked that the U.S. industry was heavily dependent on rare earth metals imported from China that play a key role in many weapon systems. In such circumstances, it is impossible to combat the Celestial Empire in the conflict over Taiwan.
It is noteworthy that in its February 2022 report, the United States National Defence Industry Association (NDIA) gave the U.S. defence industrial base an overall failing grade, rating its capacity at 69 points out of 100, which is a ‘Mediocre C’ grade. The weak link in the U.S. military-industrial complex is the destroyed production chains that limit the possibilities for expanding military products. According to HASC, 3 million people worked at the enterprises of the U.S. military-industrial complex in 1985, whereas in 2021 — only 1.1 million. In particular, its shipbuilding industry can no longer cope with government orders being able to produce only one nuclear-powered attack submarine in 2025, a drop from the two-per-year pace of recent years. In contrast, China produces 10 times more. 

Error correction 

Our country will no longer allow the mistakes of the Cold War period, when the entire economy of the USSR worked for the military component to the detriment of civilian products. The depletion of our national economies will not happen.  
Along with that, Belarus is doing everything to strengthen its military potential, including through the development of the domestic military-industrial complex. Thus, in the event of any armed provocations by the West, Belarus will have enough forces and resources — weapons, military hardware, ammunition — to repel an enemy attack.
On the eve of Victory Day, Russia and Belarus gave a clear signal to the West about the high level of readiness and determination to use tactical nuclear weapons in case of direct aggression against our country. Aleksandr Lukashenko announced launching of the next stage of response measures. The General Staffs of Belarus’ and Russia’s Armed Forces have envisaged the inspection of the forces and means of a joint regional grouping of troops. During the inspection, the troops will deliver special munitions to missile and Air Force units, mount them on launchers and aircraft.
The West got absorbed in playing — in an attempt to hold the position of the hegemon, it has thrown its cap over the windmill and approached the red lines. Through joint nuclear exercises, Belarus and Russia have put the collective West in its place and given a signal to the whole world to stop the escalation. In fact, the positions of NATO countries are weakened, their military economy is on the wane, and the whole warmongering rhetoric is based on elements of bluff and audacity. Many people have come to realise the worthlessness of Washington, London, Brussels and Paris. Belarus plays a key historical role in the current geopolitical situation, and this time [as opposed to the 1941-1945 Nazi Germany’s occupation and genocide of the USSR], we will allow neither the occupation nor the devastation of our lands. We are ready to respond to aggression should it happen.

In the absence of backup option

After the end of the Cold War, a lot of contractors of the U.S. military-industrial complex went bankrupt and laid off thousands of qualified specialists. The U.S. Navy Vice Admiral, William Galinis, paid attention at an American Society of Naval Engineers conference to a shrinking gap between wages at naval shipyards and ‘some of the fast food restaurants’, which limited the possibility to hire competent workers.
In 2022, when battles on the territory of Ukraine were in full swing, leading American corporations opened thousands of job vacancies but did not manage to fill them in full. Thus, Raytheon Technologies hoped to attract more than 6,000 employees, Northrop Grumman — 5,800, and Lockheed Martin — over 5,600.
The problems of the U.S. military-industrial complex were reflected in the report of the American Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). It revealed that the United States lacked arsenal and adequate surge capacity, which would make it extremely difficult for the United States to sustain a protracted conflict with Russia, let alone with China over the Taiwan issue. 
According to calculations, in just three weeks of fighting, Washington will spend over 5,000 long-range missiles, and the supply of anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles is projected to run out in a week. This is in addition to the fact that the U.S. military-industrial complex will be able to produce the same amount of weapons in only 1.5-2 years. In other words, in the event of large-scale hostilities, the U.S. army is going to face the threat of shell starvation.

By Aleksei Avdonin, analyst at Belarusian Institute for Strategic Research (BISR)