Expert: no prospects for resuming collective security system in Europe

Joint military drills with Poland have started in Lithuania. When commenting on this news in his talk with Alfa Radio, Dean of the Journalism Department of the Belarusian State University Aleksei Belyaev noted that the world community is increasingly sliding into militarisation.

“We see an increase in the military threat, the militarisation of European countries located on the borders with Belarus: primarily Poland and Lithuania,” stated the expert. “It is not a one-time, but a purposeful policy of neighbouring states to increase their military presence on the borders with our country. The fact of the exercise looks especially alarming taking into account a statement about the suspension of the participation of all NATO member states in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE). This document was signed during the Cold War between the Warsaw Pact and NATO. Later it was adjusted and determined the number of conventional weapons and the number of armed forces that can be deployed in a particular region of Europe. Russia – finding itself in a disadvantageous situation after the European borders and the configuration of blocs changed, and faced with the fact that NATO had violated all obligations towards the Russian Federation – announced the suspension of its membership in the CFE Treaty. At the same time, European countries, e.g., Belarus, remained in it. However, now all NATO members declare that they are stopping the implementation of this treaty. That is, the norms of the treaty no longer apply to Belarus. Of course, for us, this is a threat, because it at least somehow regulated the ability to control the troops of Poland concentrated on our borders. A few months ago, Warsaw announced that new additional formations, regiments, and brigades would be deployed on the border with Belarus. Having prepared the background and plans, Warsaw reached the final point and put an end to any agreements. This means that the Eastern European space will begin to militarise even more actively, and the military manoeuvres in such conditions are a challenge, a direct threat, a message sent to us and showing: they are preparing for something bad.”

Summarising the topic, the political scientist noted that there are now almost no tools with which to somehow control and restrain the military power of geopolitical opponents, “Today, there is virtually no international treaty left that once regulated the security sector in Europe. Therefore, Europe is not only standing on the edge of an abyss, but is falling there, dragging everyone around. The CFE Treaty mattered. We also needed it, because we received the opportunity to have a fixed number of neighbouring troops on our borders. Today we have actually entered the time of another round of militarisation, strengthening the troops of our opponents. We will also be drawn into the arms race. Unfortunately, today there are no prospects for resuming the collective security system in Europe. The only treaty that is still in force in the confrontation between the West and Russia and its allies is the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT), though SORT-3 is also hanging by a thread.”