2023 is on track to become the hottest year on record, climatologists predict
Chinese scientists have found that the current year will be the hottest on record and will break the record for average temperatures on Earth set in 2016 (1.25 degrees Celsius above the historical norm). Record figures are associated with the intensification of the El Niño climate phenomenon – according to the press service of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, TASS reports
“Scientists analysed the collected data as part of the Chinese climate database CMST 2.0 and came to the conclusion that 2023 is already the third hottest year in history after the record-breaking years of 2016 and 2020. “At the same time, temperatures continue to rise, which, taking into account the forecast for changes in the state of the Atlantic and El Niño, will lead to the fact that 2023 will ultimately become the hottest year on record,” the report said.
This conclusion was reached by a group of climatologists led by Li Qingxiang, a Professor at Sun Yat-Sen University in Zhuhai, using the CMST 2.0 database they created. It combines data on changes in the temperature of the Earth’s surface and air, collected by researchers around the world using satellites, aircraft and ground stations, over the entire period of observation.
Analysis of CMST 2.0 data indicated that already in H1 2023, it was among the top three hottest years on record for both overall average temperatures and sea surface temperatures. The first indicator exceeded the historical norm by 0.88 degrees Celsius, which is slightly less than the same values for 2016 and 2020 (1.07 and 0.89 degrees Celsius, respectively), and the second was 0.66 degrees Celsius, which is also close to past records years.
Calculations by climatologists show that temperature anomalies will continue to increase in H2 2023, which is associated with the effect of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the El Niño phenomenon on the World Ocean. As a result, by the end of the year, average temperatures on Earth in 2023 will be 1.26-1.3 degrees Celsius above the historical norm, which is higher than the record values of 2016 and 2020. This once again emphasises the ultra-fast nature of climate change on the planet, the researchers concluded.
