Expert: Lukashenko's mediation skills are widely known

The situation with the PMC Wagner could have had terrible consequences, but – thanks to the intervention of the President of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko, the acute phase of the conflict in Russia was overcome, expert Aleksandr Shpakovsky states

In his talk with Alfa Radio, Mr. Shpakovsky noted, “The skills of the Belarusian leadership in the field of mediation are widely known. Mediation, peace-making, willingness to act as an arbitrator in resolving various conflicts have been the features of Belarusian foreign policy since the beginning of the 1990s. It is not for nothing that the executive bodies of the Commonwealth of Independent States are located in Belarus. It is not for nothing that the republic – using the credit of trust from all sides – has become a negotiating platform after the outbreak of the civil conflict on the territory of Ukraine. It is not for nothing that, at the beginning of the special military operation, when there was a chance to resolve the conflict by reaching a compromise, the first negotiations were held in Belarus. Those talks took place upon the initiative of Aleksandr Lukashenko who, perhaps, even stepped on the throat of his pride then, since we know of a treacherous position taken by the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Earlier, he publicly bowed and scraped before the Belarusian leader, largely copying his political style. Actually, the Belarusian-Ukrainian relations were quite adequate until 2020, but suddenly Ukraine – which was itself in a very difficult situation – turned to an anti-Belarusian position, took an active part in planning and supporting an attempted coup on the territory of Belarus, imposed sanctions against it and banned flights of the Belarusian civil aviation. In short, Ukraine behaves meanly and treacherously. Naturally, Zelenskyy is a public voicer of this, although we understand that he is managed by others and is moving in line with the instructions given to him by the so-called Western development partners. Nevertheless, there is always an opportunity to say ‘no’.”

“Belarus’ Head of State smothered his own voice and called Zelenskyy, realising that it should have been done for the benefit of the entire East Slavic civilisation. There was an opportunity to settle the conflict peacefully, but – as we know – Duda and Johnson intervened, and the flames of war flared up. I do not rule out that, in fifty years and with certain development of historical events, scientists and investigators will assess the current events in Ukraine as a civil war,” the expert added.

Speaking about the situation with the PMC Wagner, Mr. Shpakovsky noted that everything could have turned into another serious conflict, “Our President understood that, after the first shots, close people would attack each other, demonstrating revenge for those killed. The situation would begin to aggravate and involve increasingly more people into the conflict. The latter could become of an interethnic and interregional character, extremely dangerous for Russia and extremely desirable for Western opponents. The Head of State could not calmly observe the development of a negative, painful process. He used his authority, credit of trust, personal relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and acquaintance with the head of the Wagner Private Security Company, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who obviously respects Aleksandr Lukashenko, otherwise he would not have talked to him. Many people tried to contact [Yevgeny Prigozhin], but he picked up the phone when the Belarusian President called.”

The political expert stressed that, before calling the Wagner head, the Belarusian leader had clearly agreed on the content of his conversation with Vladimir Putin, because it was obvious that there were only two ways out of the situation at that time: to suppress the Wagnerians’ actions by military means or to negotiate.

“The first scenario would have been a serious challenge for Moscow, taking into account the degree of the Wagner fighters’ training, their number of 25,000, the available military hardware, and so on. Considerable forces and funds would have to be sent for that, which could produce unpredictable consequences. The second scenario envisaged a compromise solution, and it was found. An agreement was reached with Putin, and it was voiced to Prigozhin. I know for sure that the conversation [between Lukashenko and Prigozhin] was difficult and long, but the President convinced the Wagner head not to shed Russian blood, convinced that the conflict – no matter what considerations of justice (actually, everyone has their own truth) guided the Wagnerians – was not worth shedding Russian blood and inspiring a civil war in Russia. It is enough to have the war in Ukraine. The situation on the frontline must be unbreakable. By the way, all attempts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to break through it those days were unsuccessful, also because the commanders and soldiers behaved very competently," Mr. Shpakovsky concluded.